Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Electric car residual value forecasts edge closer to diesel
ELECTRIC vehicle residual value forecasts are moving closer to traditional diesel cars as the used car market becomes more accustomed to EV technology, says Glass’s.
They have said that in some cases residual value forecasts are already broadly similar to their diesel equivalent.
Rupert Pontin, head of valuations, said: ‘The residual value gold standard for EVs is the Tesla Model S. Its minimum 220 mile range means that its three year/60,000 mile value is around 43 per cent – almost exactly the same as a well-established direct competitor, the BMW M535D M Sport.’
According to Glass’s, elsewhere in the market, EV values are also closing the gap on diesels. The Vauxhall Ampera Electron’s 27.58 per cent at 3 year 60,000 miles is not far adrift of the Insignia SRI CDTi’s 34.56 per cent while the BMW i3 extender Suite at 39.11 per cent is just a few points away from the BMW 320d Sport’s 43.46 per cent.
‘Clearly, there is still a difference here between EVs and diesels but there are signs that it is closing all the time. Crucially, when the overall running costs of an EV are taken into account, factors such as savings on fuel mean that they may beat traditional models,’ added Pontin.
A major boost, according to Pontin, in the last few months has been Nissan’s announcement that a new battery pack for the Leaf EV would cost 5000 euros.
He said: ‘RVs of the Leaf are among the poorest of the EVs at around 29 per cent at three years/60,000 miles because there are quite a number around. However, removing the mystery surrounding the battery pack pricing took away a large degree of uncertainty from forecasting its RVs. While 5000 euros is expensive, it is something that can be planned into a budget when you are making an RV forecast.’
The data suggests that EV RVs would continue to close the gap on diesels as used car retailers and buyers became more familiar with the technology. Critically, the battery power improving will mean a better real world driving range.
Pontin concluded: ‘EVs of one kind or another currently account for about 2 per cent of the market. However, if the UK is to meet its 2020 emissions target of 95g/km per vehicle, their penetration must increase quite rapidly. As this happens and they become a more familiar part of our daily lives, we expect EV RVs to firm up and stabilise.’
DATED: 18.03.15
FEED: CDM
